Leafs vs Bruins Game 7 Prediction, Odds & Prop Picks

Apr 27, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) battles for the puck in front of Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) during the third period in game four of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAYWe’ve made our Leafs vs Bruins Game 7 prediction for Saturday nightThe NHL odds favor the B’s to eliminate the Leafs and advanceRead below for Leafs vs Bruins Game 7 prediction, odds and player prop picks

It all comes down to this. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins are set to face off in a decisive Game 7 of their Eastern Conference First-Round series on Saturday, May 4, 2024, at 8:00 PM ET. The game will be broadcast on ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC, and TVAS.

The Bruins are favored with a moneyline of -142, while the Maple Leafs are the underdogs at +120. The over/under for total goals is set at 5.5, with the over at +110 and the under at -130. This do-or-die matchup promises to be an intense battle between two Original Six rivals, with the winner advancing to face the Florida Panthers in the second round.

We’ve made our Leafs vs Bruins prediction for Game 7, plus have identified the best player props to target.

Leafs vs Bruins Prediction

Despite trailing 3-1 in the series, the Maple Leafs have fought back to force Game 7 by winning the last two games without star center Auston Matthews. Toronto’s offense has been led by William Nylander, who scored both goals in Game 6, and Max Domi, who leads the team with four points in the series.

The Leafs’ defense and goaltending have also stepped up, allowing just 51 shots on goal combined in the last two games. Joseph Woll has started the past two games over Ilya Samsonov, posting an outstanding .961 save percentage in those games.

Joseph Woll just stopped 49 of 51 shots the past 2 games with Toronto facing elimination 🧱 pic.twitter.com/JSuqaPbufX

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) May 3, 2024

The Bruins, on the other hand, have struggled to generate offense, scoring only one goal in each of the last two games. Their star forward, David Pastrnak, has been limited in shot volume and quality, with his shooting percentage dropping from 15.2% in the regular season to 10.5% in this series.

Boston will need their top players, including Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Charlie McAvoy, to rise to the occasion in Game 7. “Your best players need to come through with some big-time plays and big-time moments… Pasta needs to step up”

Considering the Maple Leafs’ momentum, strong goaltending from Joseph Woll, and the Bruins’ offensive struggles, the prediction is for the game to finish with under 5.5 total goals. We lean Toronto on the moneyline to break their Game 7 curse, but our most confident pick is the under.

Game 7 Pick:

Under 5.5 Goals (-130)

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Leafs vs Bruins Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
TOR Maple Leafs	+1.5 (-240)	+120	Over 5.5 (+110)
BOS Bruins	-1.5 (+195)	-142	Under 5.5 (-130)

The Bruins are the favorites in this Game 7 matchup with a moneyline of -142, meaning a $142 bet on Boston would return $100 if they win. The Maple Leafs are the underdogs at +120, so a $100 bet on Toronto would yield a $120 profit if they emerge victorious. The implied probability based on these odds is 58.7% for a Bruins win and 45.5% for a Maple Leafs win.

The oddsmakers favor the Bruins due to the game being played in Boston and Jeremy Swayman’s more proven track record compared to Joseph Woll. However, the Maple Leafs have shown they can compete with the Bruins, winning two of their three road games in this series.

Part of the reason we are leaning toward Toronto on the moneyline is because we see this game as virtually a pick’em (50/50). We aren’t overly confident in either team winning, so that makes Toronto the best side from an overall value standpoint.

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Leafs vs Bruins Player Props

The NHL player props market for Leafs vs. Bruins Game 7 shows David Pastrnak with the best odds to score at +110.

Player	Anytime Goalscorer	Shots on Goal (O/U)	Points (O/U)
David Pastrnak	+110	3.5 (-166o/+130u)	1.5 (+160o/-210u)
William Nylander	+135	3.5 (-135o/+105u)	0.5 (-210o/+160u)
John Tavares	+155	3.5 (+130o/-166u)	0.5 (-140o/+110u)
Brad Marchand	+180	2.5 (+100o/-130u)	0.5 (-200o/+154u)
Mitchell Marner	+200	2.5 (+130o/-166u)	0.5 (-210o/+160u)
Tyler Bertuzzi	+215	2.5 (-105o/-125u)	0.5 (-105o/-125u)
Jake DeBrusk	+265	1.5 (-190o/+145u)	0.5 (+105o/-135u)
Pavel Zacha	+280	1.5 (-160o/+124u)	0.5 (-125o/-105u)
Max Domi	+295	2.5 (+130o/-166u)	0.5 (+105o/-135u)
Charlie Coyle	+320	1.5 (-145o/+114u)	0.5 (-110o/-120u)

Here are the player prop bets we’ve locked in for Leafs vs Bruins Game 7 tonight:

William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal:

Nylander has been a driving force for the Maple Leafs since returning to the lineup, scoring two goals in Game 6 and recording at least five shots on goal in each of his past two games.

Brad Marchand Over 0.5 Points

Despite being held off the scoresheet in the last two games, Marchand started the series with eight points in the first four games. He has a history of performing well in Game sevens, with seven points in 11 career Game 7 appearances.

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Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 7 History

The Bruins and Maple Leafs have faced each other in three Game 7’s over the past 11 years, with Boston winning all three matchups. In 2013, 2018, and 2019, the Bruins eliminated the Maple Leafs in the decisive game, outscoring them 17-9 in those contests.

Year	Winner	Score	Location
1941	Bruins	2-1	Boston
1959	Maple Leafs	3-2	Boston
2013	Bruins	5-4 (OT)	Boston
2018	Bruins	7-4	Boston
2019	Bruins	5-1	Boston

However, the Bruins have lost their last three Game 7’s, including a heartbreaking defeat to the Panthers last year after leading the series 3-1. The Maple Leafs, on the other hand, have lost five straight Game 7’s, with their last win coming in 2013.

Leafs vs Bruins Injury Report

The biggest question mark for the Maple Leafs is Auston Matthews’s status. He has missed the last two games due to an undisclosed illness. While his recovery has progressed, his availability for Game seven remains uncertain.

Matthews skated with the Leafs during their morning skate in Boston, which is a sign he could potentially make his return for the all-important Game 7. Stay tuned for the latest Auston Matthews injury updates as we approach puck drop.

Auston Matthews on the ice ahead of Leafs morning skate in Boston @TSN_Edge pic.twitter.com/qQk3JTP7Nq

— Mark Masters (@markhmasters) May 4, 2024

The Maple Leafs have proven they can win without him, but having their leading goal-scorer back in the lineup would provide a significant boost.

The Bruins have not reported any significant injuries, and they will likely have a full roster available for this crucial game.

 

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