Pirates vs Phillies Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers for April 11

Sep 28, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Cristian Pache (19) reacts in front of Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Jason Delay (55) after striking out to end the game at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY SportsIn-state rivals Pittsburgh and Philadelphia start a three-game series on Thursday nightThe surprising Pirates hold an early lead in the NL Central, while the Phillies are two back of the Braves in the NL EastSee the Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies odds, predictions, and starting pitchers for April 11

The MLB’s version of the battle for Pennsylvania rekindles on Thursday night when the NL Central-leading Pittsburgh Pirates (9-3, 6-1 away, O/U) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (6-6, 2-4 home, O/U) at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 pm ET.

Pittsburgh sends early NL Rookie of the Year contender Jared Jones to the hill opposite Philadelphia veteran Ranger Suarez, who’s also off to a strong start in 2024. Oddsmakers position the Phillies as modest home favorites.

Pirates vs Phillies Odds

Philadelphia is listed at -143 in the Pirates vs Phillies odds with the Bucs coming back as +120 road underdogs in Thursday’s MLB odds. The over/under is sitting at nine flat with the over favored at -120.

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Odds as of April 11 at BetMGM. Download one of the top sports betting apps to wager on PIT vs PHI. 

Despite holding the early lead in the NL Central, the Pirates (+588) remain last in the MLB division odds. The Phillies are +303 second-favorites to the Braves in the NL East.

Pirates Split Two-Game Set with Tigers

After winning their first three series of the season (a four-game sweep of the Marlins plus two-to-one series victories over the Nationals and Orioles), the Pirates only managed a split of a quick two-game set with the Tigers, falling 5-3 on Tuesday night. Pittsburgh held a 3-1 lead in the ninth before Detroit tagged Pirates closer David Bednar for four runs.

With a +19 run differential through 12 games, Pittsburgh has the second-best run differential in the National League, trailing only the Braves (+26). The Pirates’ offense sits fifth in the MLB in wOBA (.343) and 11th in wRC+ (110). Nine different players have at least four RBI this year, led by Bryan Reynolds (10).

Despite only playing in eight games so far, 28-year-old outfielder Edward Olivares leads the Pirates with three homers.

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Phillies Bats Quiet So Far

On the whole, Philadelphia’s offense has been a disappointment this season. The Phillies are just 23rd in wRC+ (84) and 24th in slugging percentage (.342). Bryce Harper, who mashed three homers against the Reds on April 2, hasn’t gone yard in any other game this season and is batting just .214.

Left fielder Brandon Marsh has been the main bright spot on offense, with a .333 average and a .942 OPS. He’s tied for the team lead in both home runs (three) and RBI (seven).

The Phillies are also well behind the Pirates in team ERA (3.66 vs 3.92) and FIP (3.35 vs 3.57).

Philadelphia got back to .500 last time out with a 4-3 win at St Louis.

Jared Jones vs Ranger Suarez

JonesVSSuarez

Jared Jones has been solid in his first two big-league starts. He gave up three runs on three hits over 5.2 innings in a 9-3 win over the Marlins on March 30, striking out ten in the process. In his second start, he allowed just two runs on six hits over 6.0 innings with seven strikeouts in a 5-2 loss to the Orioles.

Suarez has been nearly as effective in his first two starts of 2024. He’s scattered seven hits, one walk,a nd five runs over 11 innings of work against the Braves and Nationals while striking out 11.

But the Pittsburgh lineup has a history of success against the 28-year-old lefty. Suarez made one start against the Pirates last season, lasting 4.2 innings and giving up six runs on nine hits and two walks with just four Ks. In 43 total at-bats, Pirates hitters are slashing .372/.438/.512  with a .949 OPS against Suarez, though they have yet to take him yard.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

It’s a small sample size, but I’m buying high on Jones. He has an average fastball velo of 97.6 and is issuing just 1.54 walks per nine innings so far. In other words, he’s pairing elite velocity with excellent control. Add in the fact that none of the Phillies have ever faced the 22-year-old before, and Jones should have big edge early on.

Suarez, on the other hand, has been routinely tagged by this Pirates lineup in the past. He also has a long history of pitching much better on the road than at home. Suarez’s career ERA on the road is a solid 3.05 but at home that increases to 3.80. His home/road splits were even more stark last season (2.75 in 59 innings on the road vs 5.45 in 66 innings at home).

This is a good spot to bet the Pirates’ first-half moneyline at plus-money.

PIT vs PHI pick: Pirates first 5 innings moneyline (+110)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 MLB betting record: 8-2 (+4.05 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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