Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks, Predictions, Odds & Player Props – Game 3

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) pitches during the second inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game seven of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Oct. 24, 2023.The World Series moves to Phoenix for Game 3 between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday nightMax Scherzer starts for the Rangers against rookie Brandon Pfaadt for the DBacksSee the Rangers vs Diamondbacks odds, player props, and picks for Game 3

With the best-of-seven series tied at one apiece, the 2023 World Series between the Texas Rangers (99-76, 48-41 away) and Arizona Diamondbacks (94-82, 46-39 home) moves to Phoenix, AZ, on Monday for Game 3 (8:03 pm ET).

The pitching matchup is a stark juxtaposition in terms of experience with 16-year veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer starting for Texas against rookie Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona.

But oddsmakers remain wary of Scherzer, who hasn’t been his usual dominant self in the postseason, and the odds for Game 3 are a pick’em as a result.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Odds for Game 3

Both the Rangers and DBacks are listed at -110 to win, while the run total is at 9.0 (-110 both ways). Texas took the opener on Thursday (6-5 in 11 innings) as a -160 home favorite. Arizona won Game 2 on Friday (9-1) as a +120 road underdog. The MLB public betting splits show the vast majority of moneyline handle (79%) on Arizona for Game 3.

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Odds as of 11:11 am, Oct. 30, on the BetMGM Sportsbook app. If you’ve already signed up at BetMGM, seea list of the best sportsbook apps in North America.

The World Series odds narrowed considerably after Arizona earned the split in Arlington. The Rangers were a -176 favorite in the opening odds and shortened to -295 after winning Game 1. But now Texas is only a slim -137 betting favorite heading into Game 3 with the DBacks at +116.

Games 3, 4, and 5 all take place in Arizona, meaning the Diamondbacks would win the best-of-seven series if they can sweep their home games.

Arizona vs Texas Game 3 Starting Pitchers

The 39-year-old Scherzer has made two starts in the postseason, returning from a month-long absence that held him out since Sep. 12. Both were ugly: he gave up five runs on five hits and a walk over 4.0 innings in a Game 3 loss to Houston in the ALCS, and then managed just 2.2 innings in Game 7, allowing four hits, two walks, and two runs while on a short leash.

Max Scherzer vs Brandon Pfaadt

ScherzerVSPfaadt

*All statistics in table from 2023 regular season. 

Pfaadt’s trajectory has been the exact opposite. The rookie was hit hard during the majority of his first season in the bigs, but he started to put the pieces together late in the regular season and has parlayed that success into a (relatively) brilliant postseason run.

In four playoff starts, Pfaadt has a 2.70 ERA with 22 strikeouts in just 16.2 innings of work, a far cry from the 8.37 ERA he posted during his first month in the majors.

Pfaadt has faced Texas once before, coincidentally in his first career MLB start back on May 3rd. The Rangers mangled the rookie for seven runs on nine hits, including four homers over 4.2 innings. Josh Jung went deep off Pfaadt twice, while Jonah Heim and Leody Taveras also homered. Ironically, the only Ranger starter who didn’t get a hit that day was the record-setting Adolis Garcia, who has already set a new Major League high for RBI in a single postseason (22).

Scherzer has phenomenal career numbers against the Arizona lineup – .155/.216/.350 slashline over 103 total at-bats – but his lone start against the DBacks this season (which came in July before he was traded by the New York Mets) was mediocre by his lofty standards: four runs on five hits and two walks over 6.0 innings with nine strikeouts. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr all homered off of Scherzer in that July start.

Rangers vs DBacks Game 3 Player Props

*Perdomo’s home run odds from Caesars Sportsbook. All others in MLB props table from DraftKings.

The over/unders for Scherzer and Pfaadt are indicative of their recent performances. The rookie is listed with an identical strikeout total as the living legend (4.5) with both slightly favored to stay under. Scherzer’s outs-recorded total has been set at 14.5, one higher than Pfaadt at 13.5.

As will be the case for every game in the series, Adolis Garcia has the shortest odds to hit a home run (+255) and record an RBI (+115).

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Rangers vs Diamondbacks Game 3 Picks

At this point, I am prepared to throw out the entire first half of Pfaadt’s 2023 regular-season stats. The rookie had a 9.82 ERA before the All-Star break and a 4.22 ERA after, per Baseball Savant. He has only gotten better in the postseason, recording double-digit swinging strikes in three of four starts. I don’t expect him to be perfect against a dangerous Texas lineup that’s already touched him up once before. But I do expect him to continue generating strikeouts.

As for Scherzer, his regular-season ERA was the highest it’s been since 2011 and age/wear-and-tear appear to be taking their toll. While his velocity is (mostly) still intact, location and movement are letting him down. Until he produces a vintage Scherzer performance, I am going to fade him.

If the starters produce a stalemate, the DBacks have the edge once the game is turned over to the bullpens (Paul Sewald’s Game 1 failure notwithstanding).

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline (-110)Pfaadt over 4.5 strikeouts (115)Garcia under 0.5 RBI (-155)

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