Top 3 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/29)

While Mondays are a common off day this late in the season, few teams have off today, as a loaded 12-game slate is on tap.

Over the weekend we saw the AL West division race once again become dead-locked, as the Seattle Mariners took advantage of a historically bad Chicago White Sox team and completed a road sweep as the White Sox have now lost 14 consecutive games. Elsewhere in the American League, the last-place Oakland Athletics are the only team with seven-plus wins in their last 10 games, and every division race in the National League is separated by at least six games.

Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, July 29.

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    Monday’s Best MLB Picks

    (MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

    Cleveland Guardians (-115) at Detroit Tigers (-105) | O/U 7 (-112/-108) 

    Guardians righty Tanner Bibee has faced the Tigers three times this year, and Cleveland is 2-1 in those games, with each decided by one run. Bibee’s best start of the three came last Wednesday when he allowed one earned run on two hits in five innings, but he allowed four runs in each of the other two starts. It is also fair to start worrying about Bibee’s swing-and-miss stuff, as he has four or fewer strikeouts in three of his last five starts after ranking among the MLB leaders in K/9 rate, and struck out just four Tigers while inducing a 15% CSW% on his four-seam fastball.

    Meanwhile, in that same start, Jack Flaherty generated a 29% CSW%, including a 30% or higher rate on three of his four primary pitches. It is possible this is Flaherty’s last start in a Tigers uniform as his name has been frequently mentioned as a potential trade piece, and we are backing him to close out all the distractions and beat the Guardians, who are in a sell-high spot after taking two out of three games from the MLB-best Phillies.

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    MLB Pick: Tigers ML (-105)

    Minnesota Twins (+102) at New York Mets (-122) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115) 

    Minnesota has a .539 winning percentage against right-handed starting pitchers this season and a .607 winning percentage in games started by southpaws. The Twins have an AL-best 119 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, rank fifth in BABIP (.319), and have slugged an MLB-best .447 in that split. Thus, Minnesota should deal Jose Quintana a rare poor start, as the lefty has lost just one of his last nine starts.

    On the other side, the Mets have scored an MLB-best 274 runs since May 31, and they lead the league in wRC+ while slashing .266/.339/.476 in that span. New York also leads the league with a .210 ISO since then, and is one of two teams in the league with an ISO of .199 or better. The Mets should do their part in scoring against Simeon Woods Richardson, whose road OBA and ERA are 70 and 36 points higher than at home, respectively.   

    MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)

    Kansas City Royals (-170) at Chicago White Sox (+142) | O/U 9 (-102/-118) 

    Want an idea of how bad the White Sox are? If their current 14-game losing streak is not bad enough, their 29 wins are the fewest by any team through the first 108 games in MLB history, and they are 54 games under .500 for the first time since 1932. And speaking in more recent terms, they just allowed 22 runs (they were out-scored 22-6 in the three-game series) over three games to a Seattle Mariners team that had been held to two or fewer runs in seven of the eight games prior to the facing Chicago.

    The White Sox send Chris Flexen to the mound, who is 0-7 with a 5.73 ERA over his last 14 starts, which makes him the first White Sox pitcher since Dylan Covey in 2018-19 to go winless over a 14-start stretch. The White Sox have been swept 16 times this year, with half of those coming at home, and they have been within one run in just two of Flexen’s last 14 starts.

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    While Kansas City’s -170 moneyline odds are not even that steep considering one more loss by the White Sox tonight would be a franchise record, we are still opting for better value by laying the -1.5 runs.

    MLB Pick: Royals -1.5 (-105)

    Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

    Mike Spector