BetIQ Daily: Chiefs-Chargers TNF Picks and Player Prop Picks

BetIQ Daily: Chiefs-Chargers TNF Picks and Player Prop Picks

Picks for Thursday include a few player props and an over/under play for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers game.

December 16, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Justin Herbert is excited to see our Thursday picks (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Thursday, December 16 (#19)

BetIQ Daily is ready for a busy weekend of football, but first, we’ll get started on a pretty good appetizer with a key AFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs.

This post highlights a sample of picks available to subscribers, which also include college basketball, NBA, and all of the upcoming bowl games. And if you are playing in any college football bowl pools, our College Bowl Pool Picks are back and ramping up with bowls starting tomorrow.

See all picks by subscribing or using our free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM.

3 Thursday Picks

1) Kansas City/LA Chargers Over 52.5 – NFL Over/Under Pick 

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETOne of our highest-rated over/under plays of Week 15.Chiefs will likely be without three key defensive players who have been part of recent strong run, including sack leader Chris Jones.Kansas City had 33 first downs in first matchup against Chargers, but underperfomed in points (24) thanks to four score-stopping turnovers.

2) Justin Herbert Over 284.5 Passing Yards – NFL Player Prop

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETSlight value on passing over, but coupled with our model play on the 52.5-point game total, it becomes a stronger play.Jones’ likely absence also increases likelihood of more passing yards.

3) Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (-140) – NFL Player Prop

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETEdwards-Helaire has averaged 12.6 rushing attempts per game this year, right on this prop total.Chargers’ opponents have been extremely run-heavy against them, running the ball 48.4 percent of the time.Chargers rank 29th in yards per carry allowed (4.7), 31st in total rushing yards allowed (1,829) and 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed (18).Given their defensive absences, expect more rushing attempts for the Chiefs’ backs.

Bowl Betting Articles

We’ve also been churning out bowl betting articles ahead of Friday’s first bowl game. You can see the following:

Bowl Team ATS Records and O/U RecordsBowl Betting Trends to ConsiderBowl Upset Picks

And if you are in a bowl pool contest, check out our College Bowl Pool Picks.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season, for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

NFL point spread picks: 41-30-1 (58%, +7.3 units)College football over/under picks: 173-143-3 (55%, +14.3 units)NBA spread picks: 13-8 (62%, +3.8 units)

To view our model predictions and picks for all sports and all games, see our subscription page.

We also have a free one-year subscription offer from BetMGM available in select betting-legal U.S. states, though some restrictions apply.

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