BetIQ Daily: College Basketball Picks, Including Atlantic 10 Matchup Plus Mountain West Futures

BetIQ Daily: College Basketball Picks, Including Atlantic 10 Matchup Plus Mountain West Futures

Wednesday picks for BetIQ turn to the Atlantic 10 for George Mason vs. Saint Louis, and we take a look at Boise State in the Mountain West.

February 2, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

George Mason has been a pleasant surprise this year (Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

OK, BetIQ campers, rise and shine! And don’t forget your booties, ’cause it’s cooooold out there today.

On this Groundhog Day, we turn to the Atlantic 10 and the Mountain West for a couple of college basketball plays. We also continue with some Super Bowl coverage.

Pick of the Day: George Mason +107

NCAAB Moneyline Pickvs. Saint Louis, Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. ETGeorge Mason is a playable moneyline and spread (+1.5) pick, according to our models.The Patriots are 12-6 ATS in head coach Kim English’s first season in Fairfax.George Mason’s three worst opponent-adjusted games have come when a starter was out.In the 13 games with the current starting lineup, the Patriots are 10-3 SU and ATS.Their only Atlantic-10 loss so far came at George Washington by one point, in game that center and leading scorer Josh Oduro missed.

Futures Pick: Boise State to Win Mountain West

Over the past few weeks, we have highlighted some conference champion picks. Those were:

Arizona +110 to win Pac-12Villanova -135 to win Big EastDavidson +165 to win Atlantic-10Purdue +350 to win Big Ten

While there is still plenty of basketball left, all four of those betting odds have moved in our favor since the recommendation, and you cannot get those prices now.

We’ll add another value ahead of a key Mountain West matchup tomorrow night: Boise State -160 (at DraftKings) to win the Mountain West.

Our projections give Boise State a 72.4 percent chance of winning the conference No. 1 seed.The break-even at the current odds is 61.5 percent to win.Boise State (8-0) plays a key game at Wyoming on Thursday, the only team within one loss in the standings.The Broncos started the year 3-4, but since Devonaire Doutrive was dismissed from team and freshman Tyson Degenhart moved into starting lineup, they are 14-0.Since that lineup change, Boise State is about six points better and playing like a Top 25 team, and has three starters shooting at 38 percent from three-point range.Boise State has already won five MWC road games, and after the Wyoming game, will have six of its final nine conference games at home.

Super Bowl Point Spread and Over/Under Trends

For betting subscribers, we have more articles up, looking at some point spread trends involving favorites, underdogs, and seeding, point spread trends related to team efficiency stats, and over/under scoring trends in the Super Bowl.

We’ll have more Super Bowl content coming over the next few days, including player stat projections and props, so check our BetIQ articles page.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

NFL point spread picks: 48-37-2 (57%, +6.6 units)College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units)NBA moneyline picks: 96-81 (+13.4 units) #mc_embed_signup {background: #eee;}#mc_embed_signup div#mce-responses {margin: 0;width:96%;padding: 0;}#mc_embed_signup div.response {width: auto;padding: .5em 1em;font-weight:normal;margin: 0 0 3% 0;}#mc_embed_signup #mce-error-response {background: #d0091b;color: #fff;}#mc_embed_signup #mce-success-response {background: #006600; color: #fff;}#mc_embed_signup div.response a {color: inherit;text-decoration:underline;}