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Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots NFL Betting Splits Today
by Robert Duff in NFL Football
Updated Sep 17, 2023 · 11:02 AM PDT
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) looks to throw the ball down the field in the second half during the game between the New England Patriots and host Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, on Sunday, September 11, 2022. Final score, Dolphins, 20, Patriots, 7.The people are backing the 2.5-point favorite Miami Dolphins on the moneyline over the New England Patriots in the NFL public betting splits for their Week 2 SNF game on Sunday, September 17However, in the spread splits, the public are leaning toward the hometown PatriotsBelow, see all the Dolphins vs Patriots betting splits for the Sunday Night Football game in Week 2
The Miami Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 ATS) have whipped the New England Patriots (0-1, 0-1 ATS) in four of the past five meetings between these two AFC East rivals. However, the landscape tilts in a different direction when the Patriots are at home facing the Dolphins, and that’s helping to create division in the NFL public betting splits.
Miami, set as 2.5-point road favorites in the Dolphins vs Patriots odds, are the people’s choice in moneyline splits. However, public betting is leaning toward hometown New England, the +120 underdogs, in the spread splits. The Patriots are 3-2 straight up in the past five home games against the Dolphins. As far as the total of 46.5 points, it’s the under that is drawing the larger percentage of public betting action.
Let’s take a look at how the NFL public betting trends are responding in all of these categories to this Dolphins vs Patriots game. But first, how about a view of the latest betting trends on the game as of Sunday afternoon?
Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Percentages
| Team | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total Points | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | -2.5 | 33% | 23% | 46.5 | 27% | 40% | -142 | 92% | 76% |
| New England Patriots | +2.5 | 67% | 77% | 46.5 | 73% | 60% | +120 | 8% | 24% |
In the Dolphins vs Patriots odds, the Dolphins are -142 moneyline favorites, giving them a 58.68% implied win probability. Kickoff is set for 8:20pm ET at Gillette Stadium. This is the first time Miami has been favored to win at New England since 2002. The Dolphins haven’t won outright as the road chalk against the Patriots since 2000.
The broadcast is being carried by NBC and DAZN in Canada.
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Odds as of September 17 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to claim a DraftKings promo code to bet on Dolphins vs Patriots and other Week 2 NFL action.
Public Betting Against the Spread Leaning to Patriots
This is just the second time in the last 19 meetings between these two teams that the Dolphins are listed as the favorite at online NFL betting apps. That hasn’t slowed the public from going toward the Patriots, however, in spread betting.
In the Week 2 NFL odds, the hometown Patriots are pulling 67% of handle and 77% of bets in the public splits. The people are taking this tack even though New England is 0-5 against the spread over the club’s past five games and 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings with Miami.
Prepa𝙍𝙀𝘿 for Sunday night.#MIAvsNE 9/17 on NBC pic.twitter.com/r1MWDmvZHa
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 16, 2023
The Patriots are also 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-5 ATS in the last six contests facing AFC opposition.
Meanwhile, Miami is 5-1 ATS through the team’s past six games, 5-0 ATS in the last five games against AFC teams and 7-1 ATS through the last eight contests facing an AFC East opponent. However, Miami was just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite last season. New England, though, failed to cover three times as a home underdog.
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MIA vs NE Betting Splits Counting on Total Going Under
Miami scored 36 points on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers last week, but the people are counting on the New England defense containing QB Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense. It’s the under on the total of 46.5 points that is getting the majority of play in public betting splits.
The under is pulling 73% of public handle and 60% of the people’s bets. There’s solid logic behind that rationale.
Waiting all day for SUNDAY NIGHT! 🎶🤩#MIAvsNE | #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/KJqGKGBNgD
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) September 17, 2023
Miami has managed to score more than 22 points in the just one of the past six games against New England. Four of the last six games between the two teams have gone under. In five of the past seven Dolphins vs Patriots games in which the total was set at 46.5 points, the under has hit.
Overall, though, the over has been the winning play in eight of Miami’s last 12 games and in four of New England’s last five games.
NFL Public Betting Leaning Strongly to Dolphins on Moneyline
Oddly enough, it’s Miami that people are betting to win this game, even though the Patriots beat the Dolphins at home last season by a 23-21 count. The favored Dolphins are garnering 92% of handle and 76% of bets in the public moneyline splits.
New England is just 2-2 straight up in the past four home games against Miami, but 12-2 SU through the last 14 meetings at Gillette Stadium. Overall, the Dolphins are 2-6 SU in the last eight games. The Patriots are 1-4 SU through the last five games.
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