Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds & Picks

Nov 11, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) battles with Pittsburgh Penguins center Evgeni Malkin (71) during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY SportsThe Penguins and Maple Leafs clash on Monday Night HockeyThe Monday odds favor the Maple Leafs at homeRead below for Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction, odds and picks

Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins continue their chase for playoff spot with a matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday evening. Puck drop is set for 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena, with Sportsnet carrying the broadcast.

According to ESPN Sportsbook, the Maple Leafs open as the -135 favorites on the moneyline, while the Penguins are +125 underdogs. The over/under is set high at 6.5 for a matchup featuring NHL superstars Sidney Crosby and Auston Matthews.

Let’s get into our Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction as we analyze the odds and determine the best bets to make.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Odds

In the Monday NHL odds, the Maple Leafs are -145 moneyline favorites over the Penguins, giving them an implied win probability of 57.4%.

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Penguins vs Leafs History

This table displays the outcomes of the recent matches between the two teams, including the scores, money line (ML), puck line (PL), and over/under (O/U) results.

Penguins Betting Trends

The surging Penguins bring a four-game winning streak into Monday’s showdown with the Maple Leafs. Mike Sullivan’s team moved into a playoff position Saturday when they defeated the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning 5-4 at PPG Paints Arena.

Evgeni Malkin scored two goals and an assist, Erik Karlsson had three assists, Sidney Crosby scored his 40th goal of the season, and Kris Letang also scored for the Penguins. Goalie Alex Nedeljkovic, meanwhile, made 30 saves in his eighth straight start.

The Penguins will be turning to Nedeljkovic again on Monday as they try to garner a much-needed two points against the Leafs. Although he gave up four goals to Tampa Bay, the 28-year-old has been on a nice roll, stringing together four straight victories and bolstering his season save percentage to .907.

The Penguins are only averaging 3.03 goals per game, which barely puts them inside the top-20 league-wide. They are being carried by Hart Trophy odds contender Sidney Crosby, who is having another point-per-game season at the age of 36.

Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The Maple Leafs are coming off a 4-2 road victory over Montreal on Saturday in which Auston Matthews potted his 64th goal to continue his pursuit of a 70-goal season. The Maple Leafs had lost 4-1 at home to Tampa Bay on Wednesday but clinched a playoff position on Friday with other results going their way.

Matthews is just one goal away from tying the most in a season among active players. Alex Ovechkin scored 65 goals for the Washington Capitals in 2007-08. Mitch Marner, meanwhile, picked up an assist in his return to the lineup Saturday. He had missed the previous 12 contests due to injury.

THERE GOES PAPI! 🍁

Auston Matthews (@AM34) is the newest member of this season's 100-point club! pic.twitter.com/DDcCeP77AM

— NHL (@NHL) April 7, 2024

Toronto has moved four points above the Lightning for third place in the Atlantic Division. Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe has adjusted his lines, splitting Matthews and Marner and dropping William Nylander to the third line.

The Leafs have the league’s third-best offense, averaging 3.62 goals per contest. However, they give up 3.09 goals against per game, which is only 17th. Monday’s projected starting goalie is Ila Samsonov, who is 22-6-7 with a .893 save percentage and 3.03 GAA.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction

Pittsburgh is the more desperate team entering this game, but the Maple Leafs still have plenty to play for. Toronto is jockeying for playoff position in the NHL Playoff Bracket and trying to secure home-ice advantage for Round 1.

The Penguins are the public underdog in this game, but we like the Leafs here. Toronto hasn’t been playing down to its competition as it has in the past, as exemplified by its 13-3 record in its last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.

We don’t trust this lackluster Penguin defense, which allowed seven goals to Toronto in the previous meeting and was exposed by Tampa on Saturday. Goalie Alex Nedeljkovic is also sporting an ugly .858 save percentage in four career appearances vs Toronto.

Expect Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs offense to overwhelm the Pens’ defense/ goaltending and deliver a crushing blow to their playoff chances. Back the Leafs and the over of 6.5 goals in the Monday NHL odds.

PIT vs TOR Picks:

Maple Leafs Moneyline (-135)Over 6.5 Goals (-105)

 

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