Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Odds, Picks & Lines for Wild Card Weekend

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17), runs by several Dolphins defenders on his way to a first down, during second half action of their NFL football game Jan 07, 2024, in Miami Gardens.The Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4:30 pm EST on Monday, January 15 2024 after the game was re-scheduled from Sunday due to weather concernsThe Bills are heavy double-digit favorites in the Wild Card matchup in the AFCGet the Steelers vs Bills odds, picks and predictions for Sunday afternoon’s playoff game here

The AFC’s #2 seed Buffalo Bills (11-6 SU, 7-10 ATS) will host the conference’s #7 seed the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS) in a blistering cold Wild Card Weekend game that sees Buffalo favored by 10 points in the Steelers vs Bills odds.

Read on for the full Pittsburgh vs Buffalo odds and our top Steelers vs Bills prediction here.

Steelers vs Bills Odds

The Bills are still double-digit favorites of ten points in the Steelers vs Bills odds. At moneyline odds of -550 they have an implied probability of 84.62. The total had sunk to a low of 33.5, but after the game was pushed to Monday it has since risen to 38.5. Odds at ESPN BET January 15.

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How to Watch Pittsburgh vs Buffalo

Viewers in the United States can watch this Buffalo vs Miami game on Monday on CBS, while viewers in Canada can watch on DAZN or TSN.

Steelers vs Bills Weather Report

With the temperature below 25 degrees, wind gusts of up to 50 mph expected and Buffalo covered in a winter storm, the NFL decided to move Sunday’s game to Monday afternoon for safety precautions.

The Bills recruited volunteer fans to help dig out the stadium for today’s game that was and mostly still is covered in snow. It’s still expected to be cold, with game-time temperatures in Orchard Park expected around 15 degrees, winds of 13 mph and a 52% chance of snow

The scene at Highmark Stadium a couple hours ago

(via TikTok user htbway) pic.twitter.com/TRUqyY02kW

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) January 15, 2024

Steelers vs Bills Head-to-Head History

Last year playing at home, Buffalo routed the Steelers by a score of 38-3 and have won three of the past four between them. But Pittsburgh has won 11 of the past 15 meetings.

Steelers vs Bills Public Betting Trends

In NFL public betting, the public is undecided on how to bet on the point spread with a nearly 50-50 split in both the money and bet percentages at the time of this writing. As of Monday morning, 53% of the money and 58% of the bets are coming in on Buffalo in spread betting. They are obviously, more weighted in Buffalo’s favor when it comes to the moneyline with 64% of the money and 91% of the bets on the Bills.

Even with the the total re-opening at 38.5, the public like the over with 57% of the money and 79% of the bets backing there to be at least 39 points in the game.

Rudolph Sparks Steelers Offense

Who knew that third-string QB Mason Rudolph would be the answer for Pittsburgh this season. Despite Kenny Pickett being cleared to play in Week 18, head coach Mike Tomlin elected to stick with the hot hand in Rudolph who had won his previous two starts with Pittsburgh, 34-11 and 30-23.

Rudolph and the Steelers went to Baltimore with the Ravens resting Lamar Jackson and a bunch of key starters and won 17-10. Rudolph has been effective despite only throwing for three touchdown passes. He has yet to throw an interception, is 55-74 for 719 yards and has a QBR of 115, 112.2 and 125 in his three starts.

The Steelers come into the Wild Card Playoffs on a high, having now won three in a row. Still, this is a team that ranks 28th in PPG, 25th in YPG and 25th in passing offense. They’ll likely need to lean on a running game that ranks 13th. The Steelers have two very capable running backs in Najee Harris, 7th with 1,035 rushing yards, and Jaylen Warren, 28th with 784. In a game with all sorts of wacky weather, it could be Harris, more of a between the tackles rusher, worth targeting in your Steelers vs Bills props.

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Bills 5-0 Down the Stretch

The regular season season was a roller coaster of emotions for the Bills that started with a shock season-opening loss to the Jets. But they responded with three convincing wins, before going through a stretch of games that saw them go 2-4 SU. But Buffalo rebounded down the stretch and outside of a 37-34 overtime loss in Philadelphia, was perfect to end the regular season going 6-1 SU in their last seven games and 5-0 SU to end the year.

Though Buffalo has been on fire of late, they haven’t been blowing anyone out, mostly. Outside of a 31-10 win at home to the Cowboys, the Bills’ other four wins in their last five games have come by 7, 6, 2 and 3 points.

The Bills are just 1-2 ATS in their last three games and failed to cover as double-digit favorites versus the Patriots and Chargers. In fact, they’re 0-4 ATS in that role this season and 0-8 ATS as double-digit favorites going back further.

It’s hard to pull away from teams when you’re constantly turning the ball over, something Buffalo has done the seventh-most in the NFL, giving the ball away 28 times.

Josh Allen himself is responsible for 18 of those giveaways, throwing 18 interceptions, and at least one in 12 of his past 13 games. But he also has 29 touchdown passes, 5th, and has rushed for 15 touchdowns placing him third among receivers and running backs. Safe to say, good or bad, the offense is fully on Allen’s shoulders. Allen is -132 in the Steelers vs Bills props to throw another interception.

“My friends in the sharp betting union are going to take away my sharp card…”@FezzikSports is taking the UNDER in Steelers vs. Bills despite the total coming down so much: pic.twitter.com/WjBSf9NASt

— Ross Tucker Podcast (@RossTuckerPod) January 10, 2024

Gabe Davis, TJ Watt Highlight Steelers vs Bills Injury Concerns

Allen will be down one of his top receivers as WR Gabe Davis was held out of practice this week after injuring his knee on SNF versus the Dolphins. He was questionable earlier in the weekend, but has since been ruled out. The Bills are also out SS Taylor Rapp, while LB Tyrel Dodson and CB Rasul Douglas are questionable.

The biggest loss on either side is Steelers’ LB TJ Watt who has already been ruled out with a knee injury of his own. Pittsburgh has struggled for wins and to cover the NFL point spread when playing without their star linebacker. The Steelers are 1-10 SU and 4-6-1 ATS without Watt in the lineup.

Steelers vs Bills Head-to-Head Stats

SteelersVSBills

10-7 / 10-7	Record / ATS	11-6 / 7-10
28th (17.9)	PPG Scored	6th (26.5)
25th	YPG Offense	4th
25th	Passing YPG	8th
13th	Rushing YPG	7th
6th (19.1)	PPG Allowed	4th (18.3)
21st	YPG Allowed	9th
17th	Passing YPG Allowed	7th
19th	Rushing YPG Allowed	15th

*Stats heading into Wild Card Playoffs

Steelers vs Bills Prediction

The Bills have the trend of double-digit favorites being 7-2 ATS in Wild Card games since 2005 on their side. But they themselves have been poor in that role.

Buffalo also owns the worst ATS mark of any playoff team at 7-10. The next worst is the Eagles at 7-8-2.

But then the Steelers are the only playoff team with a negative point differential at -20 points.

Both teams should be impacted by the weather and since 2018, playoff games with winds of 10 mph or more have gone 11-2 to the Under. Mike Tomlin is 57-31-3 ATS as an underdog and in a game that could be low on scoring, I’ll back Pittsburgh and the Under.

Steelers vs Bills Picks: Steelers +10, Under 38.5

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